Overall Performance
April delivered the V-shape recovery I had positioned for, with the S&P 500 rallying from sub-6,400 lows in early April to close above 7,200 by month-end for the first time in history. The TACO thesis I held through March played out cleanly. Trump’s rhetoric was noise. The policy reversals under pressure were the base case.
The portfolio returned 4.09% for April, bringing year-to-date performance to 3.21%. The lesson from April is that when the crowd has positioned to one extreme and the underlying conditions have not changed, conviction pays.
Portfolio Allocation Analysis
China (CNXT): +16.7%. The structural thesis that Chinese assets benefit from Iran conflict insulation and stimulative domestic policy played out cleanly. Position maintained into May.
US Tech (VGT): +18.3%. The Nasdaq correction created the asymmetric entry I was waiting for, and the rotation from defence into selective offence worked. Closed and rotated into broad US for May, swapping concentration for breadth ahead of expected AI capex digestion.
Brazil (EWZ): +3.4%. Commodity-linked diversification leg added positively as expected. Closed for May. The catch-up move played out and the differential against other commodity exposures has compressed.
Silver (PSLV): -2.2%. The lone disappointment in the monthly book. The gold-silver ratio normalisation thesis took longer than expected to deliver, and rate cut sentiment dampened any relief rally. Closed on weak price action and risk management.
Ethereum (ETHA): +7.9%. Crypto sentiment recovered from depressed March levels. Position maintained into May.
Short Duration Bonds (DFSD): +0.3%. The carry and stability that allowed the offensive book to do its work without portfolio strain. Maintained as the 40% core overweight into May.
Gem Finder Update
The Gem Finder list is now nine names deep, spanning ten months of stock picking from July through April, with three positions closed and six still open.
The closed book is mixed:
Confluent (CFLT), Aug: +67.1%, locked in on IBM acquisition. The strongest result the framework has produced.
NICE Ltd, Oct: -23.6%, closed as enterprise AI workflow integration stalled against cloud hyperscaler competition.
Enovix (ENVX), Nov: -33.9%, closed as silicon anode commercialisation timelines slipped beyond the position sizing budget.
The open book has been more constructive:
Health Tech, Jul: +53.9%, with the regulatory backdrop for tech-enabled distribution continuing to support the disruptor thesis.
Cybersecurity Leader, Dec: +31.5%, holding gains through this week’s software volatility on the unified platform narrative.
Cosmetics, Apr: +1.8%, still early, with the founder-led brand premium yet to be tested by a real China consumer recovery.
Agentic AI, Sep: -2.5% after printing a +77% high earlier this year, round-tripping with the application software layer that PLTR’s reaction this week made visible.
Humanoid Robotics, Jan: -12.3%, within normal pullback range as the China consumer recovery takes longer to translate into consumption data.
Tea Beverages, Feb: -14.0%, same backdrop as Robotics, structural thesis intact.
Ten months of Gem Finder data shows the asymmetry the framework is built around. The losers got cut when the thesis broke, the winners ran longer than was comfortable to hold, and the laggards remain bounded by stop discipline rather than narrative loyalty. The framework concentrates capital in the names that work and removes it from the names that do not.
Two new commodity longs are open on the Telegram channel for paid subscribers, both with structural setups that align with the May macro backdrop. Paid subscribers also get real-time positioning updates and trade alerts as I take them.
Disclaimer
This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. There is no consideration given to the specific investment needs, objectives, or risk tolerances of any of the recipients. The information or opinions provided are personal views and do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer, or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase, or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein.